State of The Race Vol. 2 - 2009: Best Director

With the recent much publicized change within the Oscars, adding 5 more nominees to the Best Picture category, one has to wonder how this will affect the Best Director race. Will there ever again be a lone director nominee? Will this new development put more focus on the Directing nominees? How important will securing a directing nod be to a Best Picture contender now?

Given Oscar history there are plenty examples to be found that could prove or disprove any of these hypothesis, just look at Michael Curtiz, nominated for Angels with Dirty Faces back when ten nominees were the norm, despite the film itself not receiving a nod. In the end, while adding 5 nominees to the shortlist may devalue what it means to be a Best Picture nominee, it will no doubt increase the value of a Best Director nomination, especially if there is a lone director nominee this year. So, without further adieu, here are the ten most likely candidates for 2009's Best Director shortlist.

In Alphabetical Order:

Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker:

Unless you have been living under a rock for the last year or so, you are bound to have heard, read about or seen The Hurt Locker. The buzz on the movie has been deafening, as has the raves been for helmer Kathryn Bigelow, who has been getting props for injecting style and fierce veracity into her character study that just so happens to be set within the confines of the Iraq War. She has proven over the years to be adapt at genre filmaking, and with the Hurt Locker we are seeing the apex of her directorial powers. Whether or not she receives a nomination, it is very likely that the film will receive Picture, Actor, Editing and Cinematography nominations which in the end will only further amplify her buzz come time for critics and guild awards.

James Cameron (1 Nomination/1 Win) for Avatar:

For the past 20 years, James Cameron has been known as a technical genius and master of his craft, constantly pushing the envelope by creating new technology and visual f/x that has revolutionized the way we make films. Despite having not made a narrative feature film since 1997's landmark blockbuster Titanic, Cameron is an immediate threat for the Best Director race for Avatar, a science fiction adventure that takes him back to his roots in genre filmaking. While little is known about the actual story and what we will see on the big screen, there is no doubt that the technological advancements he has made in the filmaking process for this film will lead the Academy to want to honor him just for the sheer ambition and scope of his vision.

Jane Campion (1 Nomination) for Bright Star:

After receiving strong "comeback" reviews and a standing ovation at Cannes, Campion has forced herself back into the mix after last receiving a nomination for 1993's The Piano. Statistically speaking, being the only female director on this list with prior Oscar nominations and even a win for her screenplay, Campion has the best chance of becoming the first female director to receive 2 nominations. It also doesn't hurt that Bright Star, her film, is a period relationship drama and a biopic of sorts to boot. We will have a better idea of her chances once the reviews here in America start to roll out, but I have a feeling that Campion will secure a spot on the shortlist come next February.

Lee Daniels for Precious:

Lee Daniels is very likely a nominee this year for Precious, his Sundance award winning urban drama which received raves and rapturous applause upon it's debut at Cannes earlier this year. Due to the fact that besides The Hurt Locker, it is the most proven contender of the year having received raves at home and abroad it is likely that Daniels is carried along with it. It also doesn't hurt that Oprah has endorsed the movie, and the cast is phenomenal as well. Whether or not Precious is seen as an actors film, there is no doubt that Daniels is a top tier contender this year especially given that the Academy has the opportunity to be incredibly diverse by not only nominating a female director, but an African American director as well.

Clint Eastwood (4 Nominations/2 Wins) for Invictus:

This one is quite simple to explain. The Academy loves Clint, and thus have awarded him 4 Oscars in the past for Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby, plus another 4 nominations for Mystic River and Letters From Iwo Jima. It also doesn't hurt that he is directing another Oscar favorite Morgan Freeman, in a period biopic of Nelson Mandela an internationally beloved symbol of Freedom and peace. After getting the shaft last year for Changeling and Gran Torino, it is likely that the Academy will want to make it up to him, even if the movie is more Changeling than Million Dollar Baby. Clint is another extremely likely contender for this list.

Peter Jackson (2 Nominations/1 Win) for The Lovely Bones:

After bringing us the trilogy that dominated the Oscars three years in a row, and a special f/x marvel in his remake of King Kong, Peter Jackson is back with his adaptation of international best seller The Lovely Bones which is the kind of story the Oscars go gaga for. Lovely Bones is a familial relationship drama of sorts that is set around the death of a young girl, otherwise known as Oscar bait. Jackson has at his dispersal an amazing cast, and also has everyone waiting to see what his version of Heaven will look like. Either way, Jackson is by now an Academy favorite and in accordance to that is a definite contender for Best Director this year.

Michael Mann (1 Nomination) for Public Enemies:

While Mann definitely has some committed fans, the Oscars have not been one of them having only ever liked his work on The Insider, and to a lesser degree Collateral. However, with decent reviews on his side for his stretching the look and feel of a period drama to include a grittier more digital presentation Mann may have his first hit within the Academy in a long time. Armed with a great cast boasting Johnny Depp's best performance of his career, excellent cinematography and great production design, it is likely that Mann's Public Enemies could be an all around hit come February.

Rob Marshall (1 Nomination) for Nine:

After narrowly missing out on Best Director in 2002 with his Best Picture winning hit Chicago, and again three years later with multiple Oscar winner Memoirs of a Geisha, Rob Marshall is returning in a big bad way with the highly anticipated musical Nine. Boasting a strong cast and typically beautiful technical achievements in production design, costumes and cinematography, Nine looks to be a sure thing this year, and the strongest contender for the most nominations come Oscar night, but will Marshall be brought along for the ride? The man obviously knows style and grace as shown in his previous credits, but have the Oscars tired of musicals with Hairspray, High School Musical 3 and others proving to be duds? Based on the trailer and speculation alone, I think that Marshall has a good chance of making the short list, but taking home the little gold man is a horse of a different color all together. We will have to wait and see.

Lone Scherfig for An Education:

The third and most low profile of the three female directors on this list, yet no less impressive is Lone Scherfig for her breakout Sundance success, An Education. Despite not being as well known or proven as Ms. Bigelow and Campion, Scherfig does have a leg up on the two given a few different factors. 1. She is directing a small coming of age dramady, the kind that Oscar loves, compared to Kathryn Bigelow's Iraq war genre. 2. An Education has been proven here at Sundance with raves and awards, something Campion's Bright Star has not having only seen success in Europe so far. 3. An Education boasts a breakout role for a beautiful and talented young girl, much like Juno did with Ellen Page last year. If the Academy and audiences fall for Carey Mulligan the same way they did for Page in 07, then the film as well as the director and screenwriter will be pulled in with her. Much like Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody. (which I know is not the best example)

Martin Scorsese (6 Nominations/1 Win) for Shutter Island:

What can you say about Martin Scorsese that hasn't already been said for the last 30 years. The man is a master of his craft, and has been on a hot streak as of late, the man has batted 1.000 with Audiences and the Academy this decade. Now, this year, with Shutter Island, Scorsese is returning to the horror, mystery, and thriller genre for the first time since 1991's Cape Fear, and based on the amazing trailer, boy is he on the top of his friggin game. If anything it looks like the man is having fun playing around with special f/x, moody lighting, creepy sets and suspense driven editing like a kid on Christmas. If The Departed has proven us anything, Scorsese is an automatic contender even if the movie doesn't seem to be Oscar fare, just as The Departed seemed last year. Given the competition he's facing this year from old foes like Clint Eastwood, and Peter Jackson and Rob Marshall, Marty may have a steep climb ahead of him to garner a 7th nomination, but I have a feeling that even he doesn't make it this year, his movie will.