T.O.H Predicts: The Golden Globes

Just to make it clear from the get go, I love the Golden Globes. Yes, they aren't as respectable as the Oscars, and yes, the HFPA tend to be starfuckers, but the show itself is one of my favorites every awards season. The mood seems much lighter and more friendly, more of a cocktail party compared to the Oscars grand banquet, especially this year with Ricky Gervais hosting (supposedly while a bit tipsy).

It tends to be easier to predict the Globes compared to other awards bodies, simply because they like to honor stars in big event films. Take Leo DiCapri last year for Revolutionary Road for example. The Globes love stars.
So, without further rambling, here are my Golden Globe predictions.

Best Motion Picture- Drama
- An Education
- The Hurt Locker
- Invictus
- Precious
- Up in the Air
Alt: Inglourious Basterds or Brothers

Best Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy
- (500) Days of Summer
- In The Loop
- It's Complicated
- Nine
- A Serious Man
Alt: Julie & Julia

I'm having alot of trouble pegging down the main categories this year. There are only 6 or 7 true contenders for each of these Best Picture categories but those 6 0r 7 are really fighting for those spots. Brothers, Inglourious Basterds and The Lovely Bones could both potentially hit in a big bad way or completely bomb so those are my biggest question marks in the drama category. Musical and Comedy is a bit easier to nail down but I feel emotionally compromised due to my love of Funny People, a film which I find wonderful and awards worthy but I get the feeling it wont make the cut. All in all I think I'll do ok in these two categories, getting at least 75 percent of the five for each of these right.

Best Director of a Motion Picture
- Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
- Lee Daniels for Precious
- Clint Eastwood for Invictus
- Rob Marshall for Nine
- Jason Reitman for Up in the Air
Alt: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds

The Best Director category at the Globes can also get a bit difficult to make sense of as well. I think I got it 100 percent right, but there is still the lurking potential for Inglourious Basterds or The Lovely Bones to do very well, and by extension Tarantino or Jackson could get a Directorial nod. However I think these five make sense, they'll want to honor a bad ass woman, and man giving Bigelow and Eastwood an in. Jason Reitman has a next big thing vibe abd Up in the Air could go all the way. Rob Marshall is a razzle dazzle showmanwho they love, and I believe they will like Precious enough to nominate Daniels but he's definitely the weak link of these five since he's not a name director. Yet.

Best Actor in a Drama
- Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
- George Clooney for Up in the Air
- Colin Firth for A Single Man
- Morgan Freeman for Invictus
- Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker
Alt: Tobey Maguire for Brothers

Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy
- Peter Capaldi for In The Loop
- Matt Damon for The Informant!
- Daniel Day-Lewis for Nine
- Robert Downey Jr. for Sherlock Holmes
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt for (500) Days of Summer
Alt: Adam Sandler for Funny People

I like my picks for the Drama category, I'm thinking I'll be 5/5 with those, since all of those guys have buzz and are names, with the exception of Renner not really being that well known yet. However, watch out for Tobey Maguire in Brothers, his buzz is only growing louder. The Comedy/Musical actors are befuddling me though. I think Damon and Day-Lewis are locks, they were both excellent and they are internationally famouse movie stars. Peter Capaldi I think will be this year's Colin Farrell/Brendan Gleeson, meaning he is a respected European actor starring in a great European indie comedy that made some noise upon release. In The Loop is still being talked about so I say he's in. Joseph Gordon-Levitt is extremely deserving and he's in a well loved film, so he's in. The big question mark for me though is that last spot. Adam Sandler was phenominal in Funny People, and if anyone is deserving of a nod, it's him. Funny People gave us his best work to date and he's a star so he could make it, but I have a feeling the film will be completely and unfairly snubbed. So instead, I'm going with another beloved star, Downey to get a nod reminiscent of Johnny Depp's in Pirates of the Carribean.

Best Actress in a Drama
- Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side
- Helen Mirren for The Last Station
- Carey Mulligan for An Education
- Saoirse Ronan for The Lovely Bones
- Gabourey Sidibe for Precious
Alt: Abbie Cornish for Bright Star

Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy
- Sandra Bullock for The Proposal
- Marion Cottilard for Nine
- Zooey Descahnel for (500) Days of Summer
- Meryl Streep for It's Complicated
- Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia
Alt: Ellen Page for Whip It!

The Best Actress categories are pretty simple. On the drama side, Sandra Bullock is the only one who could be vulnerable and if so, Abbie Cornish gets in, simple. Comedy/Musical, take two Streeps, a Cottilard and Deschanel and you have four out of 5. Assume Bullock is going to make it at least into one of the categories and boom, there you go.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
- Alec Baldwin for It's Complicated
- Alfred Molina for An Education
- Christopher Plummer for The Last Station
- Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones
- Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds
Alt: Matt Damon for Invictus

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
- Penelope Cruz for Nine
- Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air
- Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air
- Mo'Nique for Precious
- Julianne Moore for A Single Man
Alt: Judi Dench for Nine

The Supporting Categories are simple enough as well. The Supporting Actor race has been sewn up for months with the only question being, will Damon make it in? I think not, and the last spot goes to Alec Baldwin who is on a role as of late. My Supporting Actor predictions are most likely to be the same for the rest of the season, or at least until the Oscar nominations are announced. The same can be said for Supporting Actress. These ladies are sitting pretty. Unless the Globes go apeshit for Nine and nominate more than one of the ladies for Supporting actress, this is your line up. Once again though, in both the supporting categories, watch out for Brothers cast members Jake Gylenhaal, Sam Shepard and Natalie Portman, they are all dark horses. Other than that though, pretty simple.

T.O.H Predicts: The National Board of Review

Even though the Golden Satellite Awards present their nominees before nearly every other group, they are widely considered meaningless in the grand scheme of the awards season. I mean, they failed to nominate Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood two years ago, only one example of how ludicrous this group can be at times.
The opposite of the Golden Sattelites, as far as the first important awards group to present goes, is the National Board of Review, arguably the precursor that sets the scene for the rest of Oscar season. This year, given the 10 nominee template the Oscars have switched too, the National Board may have an even larger effect this year than usual. The Board will also play a huge role in the acting categories, having launched George Clooney towards on Oscar nod for Michael Clayton in 2007 andAnne Hathaway last year for Rachel Getting Married.
Unfortunately, the Board is also the easiest precursor to mis-predict. Movies you would think be a grandslam with them, like There Will Be Blood, can be shutout in favor of a movie like The Bucket List. Their Best Director award can also be spotty as well, recent winners including eventual snubs like Tim Burton, Michael Mann, Edward Zwick and Phillip Noyce, while also award winners like Ang Lee and Martin Scorsese.
Either way, the National Board of Review will be a major trend setter for this Oscar season, and all I can do is my best in predicting it, so here it goes...

Note- You can never tell whether or not the winner of their best film will be included in the top ten so for now I'm just going with a top ten, and if the winner happens to be in my prediction for the top ten, lets just say I got it right lol.

Top Ten Films
- (500) Days of Summer
- An Education
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglourious Basterds
- Invictus
- The Lovely Bones
- Precious
- A Serious Man
- Star Trek
- Up in the Air
Alt: A Single Man

Best Director: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen for A Serious Man - Just a hunch on this one, not sure why though. I just think the Coens are going to see a lot of love this year.
Alt: Jason Reitman for Up in the Air

Best Actor: George Clooney for Up in the Air- He won a few years ago but I think he'll do it again because quite frankly, this is the quintessential George Clooney role, and the industry loves him.
Alt: Michael Stuhlbarg for A Serious Man

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan for An Educaton- Just because she's given the best female performance of the year hands down. She's also young, beautiful and british.
Alt: Gabourey Sidibe for Precious

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Waltz for Inglourious Basterds- The best performance of the year hands down in my oppinion, he owns this year.
Alt: Woody Harrelson for The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique for Precious- She's scary awsome and cast majorly against type, I think the board will eat this up.
Alt: Julianne Moore for A Single Man

Best Original Screenplay: A Serious Man by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Alt: The Hurt Locker by Mark Boal

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air by Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Alt: Precious by Geoffrey Fletcher

Best Animated Film: Up
Alt: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Best Documentary Film: The Cove
Alt: Anvil! The Story of Anvil

Best Foreign Film: The White Ribbon
Alt: Mother

Best Cast: Nine
Alt: Inglourious Basterds

Best Breakthrough Actor: Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker
Alt: Michael Stuhlbarg for A Serious Man

Best Breakthrough Actress: Gabourey Sidibe for Precious
Alt: Carey Mulligan for An Education

The Oscar Hut will be returning...

...at the end of this Thanksgiving Weekend! We've been on hiatus for about a month now due to an unforseen illness that had me layed up in a hospital bed for the last few weeks. I have new reviews waiting to be published for A Christmas Carol, An Education, The Men Who Stare At Goats, Nine, Paranormal Activity and a reprint for Precious. I have updated the site features, with a new poll, updated predictions and an updated contenders tracker.
Theres a new all category encompassing State of the Race on the way, and a full predictions article on the Golden Globes, BAFTAS and much more!