Wednesday, June 24, 2009

State of the Race No. 1 Vol. 2 - 2009 : Best Picture Part 1

With the recent news that this year's Academy Awards Best Picture category will be featuring 10 nominees compared to the usual 5 nominee rule that has been in place since the first got rid of the 10 back during the 40's, the race has definitely been shooken up quite a bit. Critical and audience favorites like Up and Star Trek could see nods despite being an animated and action film respectively. Early releases like Katherine Bigelow's The Hurt Locker and Michael Mann's Public Enemies may no longer have to fight as hard to get a spot on the kudos short list(or now long list?. Even a comedy, Funny People, from Judd Apatow now stands a fighting chance at ultimately recieving a nod. While the inclusion of an extra 5 films may make things seem less competitive, in the long run the race will become even tighter as more films will now be fighting, especially in the case of animated, foreign and comedic films which never before were reasonable contenders. So, which 10 will be good enough to earn one these coveted 10 spots on the list?


My predictions are: (In Alphabetical Order)


- Avatar: This is on my longlist of predictions for a variety of reasons. 1. This is James Cameron's first movie in more than a decade since 1997's Titanic, and you can bet that the Academy is looking out for this one. 2. The amount of money and new technology that has gone into this movie is titanic in its ammount (pun intended), if anything at all I'm almost 100 percent sure that Avatar will be a game changing film that changes the state of cinema. And finally 3. Despite the fact that I am not a fan of Titanic, I have to give Cameron props for being one of the best action and technical directors of his generation, having never really made a bad film since before Terminator. Avatar is bringing him back to the Sci-Fi Action genre that made his career.

- Funny People: Before anyone starts to come down on me for including it, please let me state my case. Despite the fact that for some reason it is popular on message boards to bash Judd Apatow, just think about this: Has Judd ever made a film that wasnt well recieved by critics and audience's alike? The 40 Year Old Virgin launched his career with a great box office, awsome reviews and even award nominations from groups like the WGA. When Knocked Up was released it was met with the same great box office and audience support as well as raves from many critics who included it in more than a few top 10 lists for 2007. Now, with Funny People being released in a few weeks Apatow has the potential to threepeat his former successes. With an amazing script and comparisons to Oscar winner James L. Brooks, Apatow faces his best odds yet of finally making it into the Academy.

- The Hurt Locker: Katherine Bigelow's Iraq set War drama analyzing a reckless bomb disarmer is now, in my opinion, the pre september release with the best chances of making it into the top 10 this year. It's already been awarded in Venice and by the Independent Spirit Awards, and it's buzz around the internet is currently at a feverpoint. Besides the fact that Katherine Bigelow is making waves for her amazing high octain direction, the film has also recieved raves for the performances of Jeremy Renner and Anthony Mackie, the film's cinematography, and it's editing. I think that The Hurt Locker has all the elements in place to shatter the public's weariness towards Iraqi War themed movies as well as the Academy's reluctance to nominate female directors. If this film can make a decent ammount of money at the box office and recieve a well place december/january dvd release, it should have no problem making it in to the list.


- Invictus: This is one of the three obvious Fall prestige dramas that have oscar buzz written all over it. Clint Eastwood is an Academy favorite, having won 4 Oscars for directing and producing Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby along with nods for Mystic River and Letters From Iwo Jima. This year, with Invictus, Eastwood is a strong favorite for Best Picture and Director for his Morgan Freeman starring Biopic of Nelson Mandela. Could he make it any easier for himself? The Academy loves Clint, they love biopics, they love Morgan Freeman and with a December release date, Invictus is premiering in the heart of Oscar season. Unless the movie is a complete flop, expect Freeman and Clint to reap countless awards and nominations this year, including Best Picture. On paper, it's a slam dunk.

- The Lovely Bones: The same goes for The Lovely Bones which on paper is pure Oscar bait. Based on a best selling novel, Peter Jackson is directing a cast of Oscar nominees in a serious family drama that is both touching and tragic. Pairing Mark Whalberg, Rachel Weisz, Saoirse Ronan, Susan Sarandon and Stanley Tucci, the film has an oscar pedigree of stars, especially in the case of Saoirse Ronan who Steven Spielberg believs will win an oscar for her performance as a murdered child in heaven. The movie has the potential to hit big with crowds and women especially if it's a tear jerker, and critics given Peter Jackson's blemish-less filmography and history with the Oscars.

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