T.O.H Predicts: The Golden Globes

Just to make it clear from the get go, I love the Golden Globes. Yes, they aren't as respectable as the Oscars, and yes, the HFPA tend to be starfuckers, but the show itself is one of my favorites every awards season. The mood seems much lighter and more friendly, more of a cocktail party compared to the Oscars grand banquet, especially this year with Ricky Gervais hosting (supposedly while a bit tipsy).

It tends to be easier to predict the Globes compared to other awards bodies, simply because they like to honor stars in big event films. Take Leo DiCapri last year for Revolutionary Road for example. The Globes love stars.
So, without further rambling, here are my Golden Globe predictions.

Best Motion Picture- Drama
- An Education
- The Hurt Locker
- Invictus
- Precious
- Up in the Air
Alt: Inglourious Basterds or Brothers

Best Motion Picture- Musical or Comedy
- (500) Days of Summer
- In The Loop
- It's Complicated
- Nine
- A Serious Man
Alt: Julie & Julia

I'm having alot of trouble pegging down the main categories this year. There are only 6 or 7 true contenders for each of these Best Picture categories but those 6 0r 7 are really fighting for those spots. Brothers, Inglourious Basterds and The Lovely Bones could both potentially hit in a big bad way or completely bomb so those are my biggest question marks in the drama category. Musical and Comedy is a bit easier to nail down but I feel emotionally compromised due to my love of Funny People, a film which I find wonderful and awards worthy but I get the feeling it wont make the cut. All in all I think I'll do ok in these two categories, getting at least 75 percent of the five for each of these right.

Best Director of a Motion Picture
- Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
- Lee Daniels for Precious
- Clint Eastwood for Invictus
- Rob Marshall for Nine
- Jason Reitman for Up in the Air
Alt: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds

The Best Director category at the Globes can also get a bit difficult to make sense of as well. I think I got it 100 percent right, but there is still the lurking potential for Inglourious Basterds or The Lovely Bones to do very well, and by extension Tarantino or Jackson could get a Directorial nod. However I think these five make sense, they'll want to honor a bad ass woman, and man giving Bigelow and Eastwood an in. Jason Reitman has a next big thing vibe abd Up in the Air could go all the way. Rob Marshall is a razzle dazzle showmanwho they love, and I believe they will like Precious enough to nominate Daniels but he's definitely the weak link of these five since he's not a name director. Yet.

Best Actor in a Drama
- Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
- George Clooney for Up in the Air
- Colin Firth for A Single Man
- Morgan Freeman for Invictus
- Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker
Alt: Tobey Maguire for Brothers

Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy
- Peter Capaldi for In The Loop
- Matt Damon for The Informant!
- Daniel Day-Lewis for Nine
- Robert Downey Jr. for Sherlock Holmes
- Joseph Gordon-Levitt for (500) Days of Summer
Alt: Adam Sandler for Funny People

I like my picks for the Drama category, I'm thinking I'll be 5/5 with those, since all of those guys have buzz and are names, with the exception of Renner not really being that well known yet. However, watch out for Tobey Maguire in Brothers, his buzz is only growing louder. The Comedy/Musical actors are befuddling me though. I think Damon and Day-Lewis are locks, they were both excellent and they are internationally famouse movie stars. Peter Capaldi I think will be this year's Colin Farrell/Brendan Gleeson, meaning he is a respected European actor starring in a great European indie comedy that made some noise upon release. In The Loop is still being talked about so I say he's in. Joseph Gordon-Levitt is extremely deserving and he's in a well loved film, so he's in. The big question mark for me though is that last spot. Adam Sandler was phenominal in Funny People, and if anyone is deserving of a nod, it's him. Funny People gave us his best work to date and he's a star so he could make it, but I have a feeling the film will be completely and unfairly snubbed. So instead, I'm going with another beloved star, Downey to get a nod reminiscent of Johnny Depp's in Pirates of the Carribean.

Best Actress in a Drama
- Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side
- Helen Mirren for The Last Station
- Carey Mulligan for An Education
- Saoirse Ronan for The Lovely Bones
- Gabourey Sidibe for Precious
Alt: Abbie Cornish for Bright Star

Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy
- Sandra Bullock for The Proposal
- Marion Cottilard for Nine
- Zooey Descahnel for (500) Days of Summer
- Meryl Streep for It's Complicated
- Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia
Alt: Ellen Page for Whip It!

The Best Actress categories are pretty simple. On the drama side, Sandra Bullock is the only one who could be vulnerable and if so, Abbie Cornish gets in, simple. Comedy/Musical, take two Streeps, a Cottilard and Deschanel and you have four out of 5. Assume Bullock is going to make it at least into one of the categories and boom, there you go.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
- Alec Baldwin for It's Complicated
- Alfred Molina for An Education
- Christopher Plummer for The Last Station
- Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones
- Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds
Alt: Matt Damon for Invictus

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
- Penelope Cruz for Nine
- Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air
- Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air
- Mo'Nique for Precious
- Julianne Moore for A Single Man
Alt: Judi Dench for Nine

The Supporting Categories are simple enough as well. The Supporting Actor race has been sewn up for months with the only question being, will Damon make it in? I think not, and the last spot goes to Alec Baldwin who is on a role as of late. My Supporting Actor predictions are most likely to be the same for the rest of the season, or at least until the Oscar nominations are announced. The same can be said for Supporting Actress. These ladies are sitting pretty. Unless the Globes go apeshit for Nine and nominate more than one of the ladies for Supporting actress, this is your line up. Once again though, in both the supporting categories, watch out for Brothers cast members Jake Gylenhaal, Sam Shepard and Natalie Portman, they are all dark horses. Other than that though, pretty simple.

T.O.H Predicts: The National Board of Review

Even though the Golden Satellite Awards present their nominees before nearly every other group, they are widely considered meaningless in the grand scheme of the awards season. I mean, they failed to nominate Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood two years ago, only one example of how ludicrous this group can be at times.
The opposite of the Golden Sattelites, as far as the first important awards group to present goes, is the National Board of Review, arguably the precursor that sets the scene for the rest of Oscar season. This year, given the 10 nominee template the Oscars have switched too, the National Board may have an even larger effect this year than usual. The Board will also play a huge role in the acting categories, having launched George Clooney towards on Oscar nod for Michael Clayton in 2007 andAnne Hathaway last year for Rachel Getting Married.
Unfortunately, the Board is also the easiest precursor to mis-predict. Movies you would think be a grandslam with them, like There Will Be Blood, can be shutout in favor of a movie like The Bucket List. Their Best Director award can also be spotty as well, recent winners including eventual snubs like Tim Burton, Michael Mann, Edward Zwick and Phillip Noyce, while also award winners like Ang Lee and Martin Scorsese.
Either way, the National Board of Review will be a major trend setter for this Oscar season, and all I can do is my best in predicting it, so here it goes...

Note- You can never tell whether or not the winner of their best film will be included in the top ten so for now I'm just going with a top ten, and if the winner happens to be in my prediction for the top ten, lets just say I got it right lol.

Top Ten Films
- (500) Days of Summer
- An Education
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglourious Basterds
- Invictus
- The Lovely Bones
- Precious
- A Serious Man
- Star Trek
- Up in the Air
Alt: A Single Man

Best Director: Joel Coen & Ethan Coen for A Serious Man - Just a hunch on this one, not sure why though. I just think the Coens are going to see a lot of love this year.
Alt: Jason Reitman for Up in the Air

Best Actor: George Clooney for Up in the Air- He won a few years ago but I think he'll do it again because quite frankly, this is the quintessential George Clooney role, and the industry loves him.
Alt: Michael Stuhlbarg for A Serious Man

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan for An Educaton- Just because she's given the best female performance of the year hands down. She's also young, beautiful and british.
Alt: Gabourey Sidibe for Precious

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Waltz for Inglourious Basterds- The best performance of the year hands down in my oppinion, he owns this year.
Alt: Woody Harrelson for The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique for Precious- She's scary awsome and cast majorly against type, I think the board will eat this up.
Alt: Julianne Moore for A Single Man

Best Original Screenplay: A Serious Man by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Alt: The Hurt Locker by Mark Boal

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air by Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
Alt: Precious by Geoffrey Fletcher

Best Animated Film: Up
Alt: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Best Documentary Film: The Cove
Alt: Anvil! The Story of Anvil

Best Foreign Film: The White Ribbon
Alt: Mother

Best Cast: Nine
Alt: Inglourious Basterds

Best Breakthrough Actor: Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker
Alt: Michael Stuhlbarg for A Serious Man

Best Breakthrough Actress: Gabourey Sidibe for Precious
Alt: Carey Mulligan for An Education

The Oscar Hut will be returning...

...at the end of this Thanksgiving Weekend! We've been on hiatus for about a month now due to an unforseen illness that had me layed up in a hospital bed for the last few weeks. I have new reviews waiting to be published for A Christmas Carol, An Education, The Men Who Stare At Goats, Nine, Paranormal Activity and a reprint for Precious. I have updated the site features, with a new poll, updated predictions and an updated contenders tracker.
Theres a new all category encompassing State of the Race on the way, and a full predictions article on the Golden Globes, BAFTAS and much more!

Predicting the Globes Part: One

The Golden Globes, best known as the little sister awards show to the Oscar's has long been a semi-important awards prognosticator for how the Oscars could go. So given the recent announcement that a drunken, unrehearsed Ricky Gervais (creator and star of The Office, Extras, Ghost Town and The Invention of Lying) will host this year's Golden Globes, an excellent choice by the way, I figure that it is as good a time as any to release my current predictions for the film categories of this year's show. While category and genre placement are still up in the air at the moment, I feel confident that I can successfully predict the HFPA "starfucker" voting mentality, and put out predictions that will come to pass as true. So, here goes it...

Best Motion Picture: Comedy or Musical

- The Hangover

- It's Complicated

- Julie & Julia

- Nine

- Up in the Air

This category tends be fairly easy to predict. Nine is the big prestige musical of the year, so that's getting in, Julie & Julia and It's Complicated fill the Nancy Meyers' type rom-com slot, ironic given her movie will be nominated this year. Up in the Air is the Sideways type dramady film that is amazing and probably has the best shot of winning, and lastly, The Hangover is the big comedy success of the year, raking in cash along with great reviews, so I think that it has a great chance at a nod. Also in contention are...Judd Apatow's underrated Funny People, Everybody's Fine and depending on genre placement, Quentin Tarantino's fantastic Inglourious Basterds, which I thought was riotously funny, though many may not share that opinion.

Best Motion Picture: Drama
- An Education

- The Hurt Locker

- Invictus
- The Lovely Bones

- Precious: based on the novel by Sapphire

The best drama category is also usually easy to predict. Just take the most buzzed and acclaimed dramas that have come out during the fall and winter and place them in. An Education, which could qualify as a comedy perhaps, is an excellent critics darling, and the same could be said about The Hurt Locker, which despite it's apolitical story, gains extra cred for being the first successful Iraq war film. Invictus is the important, biopic drama, and also has Clint Eastwood as it's director which is a plus, and The Lovely Bones is the big prestige drama of the late winter, ala Benjamin Button. The one film on this list that doesn't fall into any cliched category is Precious, an excellent, but punishing small indie film. It has the reviews, endorsement from Oprah and Tyler Perry and the buzz it needs, and plainly, its just fucking amazing. Precious makes it. Also in contention are...period biopic, The Last Station, gay themed A Single Man, post apocalyptic thriller The Road and the Coen Brother's excellent A Serious Man, along with the mysterious enigma that is James Cameron's Avatar.

Best Director of a Motion Picture

- Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker

- Clint Eastwood for Invictus

- Peter Jackson for The Lovely Bones

- Rob Marshall for Nine

- Jason Reitman for Up in the Air

This year's best director slate at the Globes will most likely include three men who may not find themselves in Oscar contention later in the month. Despite excellent reviews for Lee Daniels; directorial debut, Precious, in the end he will most likely be snubbed by the globes in favor of Peter Jackson, a publicly known filmmaker who has this year's December prestige event movie, The Lovely Bones. Also riding on the coattails of their reputation could be Clint Eastwood, an automatic nominee for every one of his films, and Rob Marshall whose films Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha took the globes by storm. Also likely to be nominated are Kathryn Bigelow, the respected female director of the incendiary Iraq war drama The Hurt Locker, and wunderkind Jason Reitman for his beautiful affecting dramady Up in the Air. Also in contention are...Lee Daniels for his amazing debut Precious, James Cameron for Avatar which remains a huge question mark for prognosticaters, Spike Jonze for Where The Wild Things Are, and Quentin Tarantino for his excellent film, Inglourious Basterds.

Invictus' Oscar Hopes?...

...are looking pretty good to me right now. The tone of the trailer gives off a vibe of importance, while Morgan Freeman, Matt Damon and Eastwood's direction looks to be excellent. Despite my hesitation to predict the film before, this trailer has pushed me over to the side of the fence where I see Invictus as a major Oscar contender.

Recent Release Short Takes

Amelia: A beautiful looking film, featuring amazing production design adn cinematography, yet featuring a flat unoriginal story and barely passable performances for Ewan MacGregor, Richard Gere and especially Hillary Swank. While it could still find itself in the hunt for technical nominations, anything else is a longshot, including a Best Actress nod for Swank. Just a boring film.

The Last Station: A period biopic drama like Amelia, yet completely engaging and interesting throughout, thanks mostly to the quadratic formula of performances for Helen Mirren (absolutely wonderful) James McAvoy (ditto) Paul Giamatti (Very good, reminding me slightly of his performance in The Illusionist) and Christopher Plummer (A career nod, shall he seek?). Like Amelia the film has great production values all around and could be a hit Oscar wise in the tech categories. However, I feel it's best chances lie on the performances of Helen Mirren, who just won a Best Actress prize in Rome for her lively work, Christopher Plummer, who will most likely get a career best supporting actor nod in this, and possibly James McAvoy, who continues to consantly impress and could be a darkhorse contender for Best Actor. The one problem I forsee for the film campaign wise is that Giamatti, McAvoy, Mirren and Plummer are all basically leads, and the decision over where to campaign may cause confusion and by result snubs.

A Serious Man: I saw the Coen's latest in Toronto and loved it then. Seeing it for the second time last night, I remain convinced that the film is their most brilliant work yet, featuring an amazing screenplay, great direction, editing, cinematography, costume design, ect., ect. The acting is top notch for stage vet Michael Stuhlbarg whose character Larry is run through the gamut, as well as supporting players Richard Kind, Fred Melamud, Aaron Wolff and the rest of the cast. The film's ending is one of the best I've seen all year, and I firmly believe that it will play great among Academy members despite being a very philosophical work with a great deal of Jewish themes. I loved it.

Where The Wild Things Are: A suprisingly poignant effort from Spike Jonze, Wild Things is one of the better films to be released this year. It treats it's audience with respect, giving us a mature, emotionally honest adaptation of a beloved childrens story. The cinematography and score are it's best attributes, but the performances from Max records, James Gandolfini and Catherine Keener are also fantastic. I feel it will probably make it into the Best Picture category as well as a few of the tech awards. Just a top notch film despite pacing issues at certain points.

State of The Race vol. 2 2009-2010: October - Best Supporting Actor

With fall ariving and the Oscar season "officially" beginning with the releases of films such as Bright Star, An Education and Where The Wild Things Are, its time once again to take a look at the current prospective nominees, this time in the categoryof Supporting Actor, at the start of fall. Here are the top ten contenders for each category thus far. (In a countdown from the least likely of the top contenders to the most likely)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (TOP 10)

10. Peter Sarsgaard for An Education - The only reason Sarsgaard rests at the number ten spot is due to technicality alone. It is currently unknown whether or not he will push for the Supporting actor nod or a Leading actor nod. My gut tells me that the films producers will want to bolster his chances and campaign him alongside Molina. Either way he is great in the film and getting a nod shouldnt prove to be too difficult for Pete, though people have been saying that every year since the Shattered Glass snub.

9. Tobey Maguire for Brothers - Playing a great role in proven source material, Maguire seems to be intent on stretching his range as an actor. He looks great in the trailer but there has been little to no word on the film's quality itself, and at this stage in the game if his film doesnt recieve wide praise, no matter how acclaimed his performance may be, Maguire looks to miss the Oscar boat once again. That said his nomination rests on Brothers critical and box office performance.
8. Anthony Mackie for The Hurt Locker - Phenominal in one of the year's best films, Mackie's chances at a nod depends really on only two things. One, the film has been able to sustain its buzz so far but it may have a tough couple of months ahead of it. If the film can survive the glut of fall/winter prestige films and remain a viable contender, Mackie may be safe. However if Locker's star Jeremy Renner fails to make the cut, it seems doubtful that the Academy would still bring him in to the players field.

7. Alec Baldwin for It's Complicated - Given his status as a beloved figure of the television entertainment community as well as being a past nominee, one would assume he would contend for an Oscar this year for his turn opposite Meryl Streep in Nancy Meyer's It's Complicated. Meyers having already nabbed Diane Keaton a nod a few years ago, seems to make films that are enjoyed by the AMPAS if not always honored, and Baldwin could ride that into a nod. However the film is a comedy, and the C-word can be an offense punishable by snubbing in the Academy.

6. James McAvoy for The Last Station - Having come so close to a nod in both 2006 and 2007 for his turns in the Last King of Scottland and Atonement respectively, it is probable that the Oscars are itching to give him that first nod and welcome him into the club. He is also appearing in a prestige biopic, a huge plus, and playing a major role in a period piece can lead to a fast track nomination. While it may seem perfect circumstances to gain McAvoy a nomination, the AMAPAS may only wish to honor Christopher Plummer with a career nod and/or Helen Mirren who is beloved more within that community than McAvoy is presently.

5. Christian McKay for Me and Orson Welles -Recieving raves for his performance as Orson Welles in Richard Linklater's recently picked up indie, Christian McKay seems to be in prime condition to recieve that Supporting actor newbie nod. He's palying a film icon, in a period film, that happens to be a serio-comedy, and has already recieved best in show notices from critics. The only con to his chances is the fact that the film is a small and may not recieve the release necissary to place him in Oscar contention.

4. Matt Damon for Invictus - Matt Damon is another actor like Alec Baldwin and Geroge Clooney who seems to be very well liked within the industry. Afterhitting it out of the ballpark with The Informant! Damon seems to be a likely double nominee this year. He is another actor playing a real life figure, opposite Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandella in a biopic directed by perhaps the most beloved actor/director if the Oscars in the past decade, Clint Eastwood. Due to the lack of early word or buzz on the film, Damon and Invictus are stuck in the too good to be true category for now, lets wait and see on this one, there isnt even a trailer yet.

3. Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones - A well liked and respected character actor, Stanley Tucci has seemed to be on the cusp of a nod forever, always delivering the goods without ever being rewarded for doing such. However, this year could finally change all that. With the goodwill leftover from his fantastic performance in Julie and Julia, his role as a killer in Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones could be a homerun for an oscar nomination. The film has the pedigree to go all the way, and in the trailer he looked downright creepy, so lets hope he delivers the goods once again this December.

2. Alfred Molina for An Education -You can basically copy the first two sentences of my Stanley Tucci thoughts and apply them to Alfred Molina, a nomination-less veteran who is absolutely fantastic in An Education, one of this year's best films. He plays a loving but worried father which is always a plus within the ampas, and that afformentioned veteran status will play big time into his chances which at the moment are considerable. He's got the reviews so far, and all he really needs now is for the film to just do well going into the precursors, and if that happens, he is a lock for his first nomination.

1. Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds - Hands down the best Supporting Performance of the year, and point blank a lock for the win right now. He's already won in Cannes and looks to be this year's Javier Bardem as far as the precursors go. Along with that, Inglourious Basterds is a bonfied box office smash and a darkhorse contender for many Oscar categories this year including Best Picture. I would be shocked if he isn't nominated, and very suprised if he fails to win the Oscar this year.

The Oscar Hut is on Temporary Hiatus...

...due to a sudden illness, ive been out with pnemonia for the last week and have been trying my best to get on the pc and pound out some stuff, unfortunately this is alot easier said than done, luckily this sick time has afforded me to see a few screeners ive recieved in the past few weeks, so when I finally am up and running I should have a review of The Invention of Lying, Zombieland, Antichrst, The Brothers Bloom (I know, but I just finally got around to seeing it), Paranormal Activity and a few other gems. I also have the State of the Race collumns on hold and will be revising them until I can put my full attention back on the site. In the meantime, Aaron Morales, a good friend of mine should be contributing a Golden Globes predictions article in the coming days.
Thanks for everything readers! Sorry for the inconvienience!

Tyler Pratt, The Oscar Hut

State of The Race...Returns tomorrow!

It's been a month or two since i last wrote a state of the race update, so tomorrow comes a mega State of the Race article starting with the Acting races, part two will detail the screenplay and part 3 Best Picture and Director!

Up in The Air, in Review

A smart and profound romantic dramedy, Up in the Air is the rare mainstream film that successfully balances comedy with poignancy, and in a way that beautifully incorporates important issues faced by today's America. Adapted for the screen and directed with maturity by Jason Reitman, Up in the Air is the kind of movie all others should strive to emulate, and on top of that it's one of the best films of the year.

Ryan Bingham is a professional down sizer, constantly flying across the United States, working for companies to fire their employees. A self professed loner uninterested in settling down, Ryan loves the wayfaring disposition of his work. However soon bedlam threatens his lifestyle when he falls for Alex, a beautiful fellow frequent-flyer & basically a female counterpart of himself. At the same time, Natalie, a young dynamo at his company, convinces the management that jobs like Ryan’s could be much more cost-effective if done via teleconferencing, as in i-chat, rather than doing it in person. The gathering storm of these events leads Ryan to begin questioning whats important in his life, and subsequently boards him on the flight to what could very well be his final destination.

With a wonderful screenplay adapted by Jason Reitman that deftly balances the film's humor with touching resonance, Up in the Air is anchored by a trio of fantastic performances by George Clooney, Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick.

Giving a phenomenal performance in perhaps what is the role of his lifetime, George Clooney is perfect as Ryan Bingham, a man uninterested in the banality of settling down and having a family. Clooney's performance is extremely subtle and layered, yet plays off his costars with great chemistry and a smart handling of the film's lighter moments, an Oscar nomination seems assured. The perfect counterpart to Clooney's Bingham, Vera Farmiga is wonderful as the wry Alex, portraying her as a woman who is deeper than she appears at first. Her performance is the most touching of the supporting cast, and along with Clooney sees herself planted firmly in the awards race. Rounding out this trio is Anna Kendrick, who does great comedic work as the insecure upstart of a foil to Clooney brings the film some of it's better moment.

Although there might be a misstep or two in the film, Jason Reitman's Up in the Air is a clearly personal film with a lot to say about the culture of alienation and technology Americans face today, as well as the worth of a life unshared with others. The film is brilliant in its handling of comedy and drama in their different variations, thanks mostly to Reitman's direction and fantastic adaptation, by Sheldon Turner and himself. The acting featured in the film is excellent all around, from Clooney, Farmiga and Kendrick to the smaller turns from Jason Bateman and Danny McBride. The film is no doubt a top contender for many of this year's Academy Awards, and possibly the odds on favorite in the Best Picture, Actor and Adapted screenplay categories.

Ultimately, Up in the Air is a character study at heart, and a fantastic one at that. I strongly suggest that each and every person who reads this, find their way to a theatre come November, simply because this film is a masterpiece, and as such demands to be seen.