BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (TOP 10)
10. Peter Sarsgaard for An Education - The only reason Sarsgaard rests at the number ten spot is due to technicality alone. It is currently unknown whether or not he will push for the Supporting actor nod or a Leading actor nod. My gut tells me that the films producers will want to bolster his chances and campaign him alongside Molina. Either way he is great in the film and getting a nod shouldnt prove to be too difficult for Pete, though people have been saying that every year since the Shattered Glass snub.
9. Tobey Maguire for Brothers - Playing a great role in proven source material, Maguire seems to be intent on stretching his range as an actor. He looks great in the trailer but there has been little to no word on the film's quality itself, and at this stage in the game if his film doesnt recieve wide praise, no matter how acclaimed his performance may be, Maguire looks to miss the Oscar boat once again. That said his nomination rests on Brothers critical and box office performance.
8. Anthony Mackie for The Hurt Locker - Phenominal in one of the year's best films, Mackie's chances at a nod depends really on only two things. One, the film has been able to sustain its buzz so far but it may have a tough couple of months ahead of it. If the film can survive the glut of fall/winter prestige films and remain a viable contender, Mackie may be safe. However if Locker's star Jeremy Renner fails to make the cut, it seems doubtful that the Academy would still bring him in to the players field.7. Alec Baldwin for It's Complicated - Given his status as a beloved figure of the television 
entertainment community as well as being a past nominee, one would assume he would contend for an Oscar this year for his turn opposite Meryl Streep in Nancy Meyer's It's Complicated. Meyers having already nabbed Diane Keaton a nod a few years ago, seems to make films that are enjoyed by the AMPAS if not always honored, and Baldwin could ride that into a nod. However the film is a comedy, and the C-word can be an offense punishable by snubbing in the Academy.
entertainment community as well as being a past nominee, one would assume he would contend for an Oscar this year for his turn opposite Meryl Streep in Nancy Meyer's It's Complicated. Meyers having already nabbed Diane Keaton a nod a few years ago, seems to make films that are enjoyed by the AMPAS if not always honored, and Baldwin could ride that into a nod. However the film is a comedy, and the C-word can be an offense punishable by snubbing in the Academy.
6. James McAvoy for The Last Station - Having come so close to a nod in both 2006 and 2007 for his turns in the Last King of Scottland and Atonement respectively, it is probable that the Oscars are itching to give him that first nod and welcome him into the club. He is also appearing in a prestige biopic, a huge plus, and playing a major role in a period piece can lead to a fast track nomination. While it may seem perfect circumstances to gain McAvoy a nomination, the AMAPAS may only wish to honor Christopher Plummer with a career nod and/or Helen Mirren who is beloved more within that community than McAvoy is presently.
5. Christian McKay for Me and Orson Welles -Recieving raves for his performance as Orson Welles in Richard Linklater's recently picked up indie, Christian McKay seems to be in prime condition to recieve that Supporting actor newbie nod. He's palying a film icon, in a period film, that happens to be a serio-comedy, and has already recieved best in show notices from critics. The only con to his chances is the fact that the film is a small and may not recieve the release necissary to place him in Oscar contention.4. Matt Damon for Invictus - Matt Damon is another actor like Alec Baldwin and Geroge Clooney 
who seems to be very well liked within the industry. Afterhitting it out of the ballpark with The Informant! Damon seems to be a likely double nominee this year. He is another actor playing a real life figure, opposite Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandella in a biopic directed by perhaps the most beloved actor/director if the Oscars in the past decade, Clint Eastwood. Due to the lack of early word or buzz on the film, Damon and Invictus are stuck in the too good to be true category for now, lets wait and see on this one, there isnt even a trailer yet.
who seems to be very well liked within the industry. Afterhitting it out of the ballpark with The Informant! Damon seems to be a likely double nominee this year. He is another actor playing a real life figure, opposite Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandella in a biopic directed by perhaps the most beloved actor/director if the Oscars in the past decade, Clint Eastwood. Due to the lack of early word or buzz on the film, Damon and Invictus are stuck in the too good to be true category for now, lets wait and see on this one, there isnt even a trailer yet.3. Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones - A well liked and respected 
character actor, Stanley Tucci has seemed to be on the cusp of a nod forever, always delivering the goods without ever being rewarded for doing such. However, this year could finally change all that. With the goodwill leftover from his fantastic performance in Julie and Julia, his role as a killer in Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones could be a homerun for an oscar nomination. The film has the pedigree to go all the way, and in the trailer he looked downright creepy, so lets hope he delivers the goods once again this December.
character actor, Stanley Tucci has seemed to be on the cusp of a nod forever, always delivering the goods without ever being rewarded for doing such. However, this year could finally change all that. With the goodwill leftover from his fantastic performance in Julie and Julia, his role as a killer in Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones could be a homerun for an oscar nomination. The film has the pedigree to go all the way, and in the trailer he looked downright creepy, so lets hope he delivers the goods once again this December.
2. Alfred Molina for An Education -You can basically copy the first two sentences of my Stanley Tucci thoughts and apply them to Alfred Molina, a nomination-less veteran who is absolutely fantastic in An Education, one of this year's best films. He plays a loving but worried father which is always a plus within the ampas, and that afformentioned veteran status will play big time into his chances which at the moment are considerable. He's got the reviews so far, and all he really needs now is for the film to just do well going into the precursors, and if that happens, he is a lock for his first nomination.
1. Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds - Hands down the best Supporting Performance of the year, and point blank a lock for the win right now. He's already won in Cannes and looks to be this year's Javier Bardem as far as the precursors go. Along with that, Inglourious Basterds is a bonfied box office smash and a darkhorse contender for many Oscar categories this year including Best Picture. I would be shocked if he isn't nominated, and very suprised if he fails to win the Oscar this year.
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