Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Predicting the Globes Part: One

The Golden Globes, best known as the little sister awards show to the Oscar's has long been a semi-important awards prognosticator for how the Oscars could go. So given the recent announcement that a drunken, unrehearsed Ricky Gervais (creator and star of The Office, Extras, Ghost Town and The Invention of Lying) will host this year's Golden Globes, an excellent choice by the way, I figure that it is as good a time as any to release my current predictions for the film categories of this year's show. While category and genre placement are still up in the air at the moment, I feel confident that I can successfully predict the HFPA "starfucker" voting mentality, and put out predictions that will come to pass as true. So, here goes it...

Best Motion Picture: Comedy or Musical
- The Hangover
- It's Complicated
- Julie & Julia
- Nine
- Up in the Air


This category tends be fairly easy to predict. Nine is the big prestige musical of the year, so that's getting in, Julie & Julia and It's Complicated fill the Nancy Meyers' type rom-com slot, ironic given her movie will be nominated this year. Up in the Air is the Sideways type dramady film that is amazing and probably has the best shot of winning, and lastly, The Hangover is the big comedy success of the year, raking in cash along with great reviews, so I think that it has a great chance at a nod. Also in contention are...Judd Apatow's underrated Funny People, Everybody's Fine and depending on genre placement, Quentin Tarantino's fantastic Inglourious Basterds, which I thought was riotously funny, though many may not share that opinion.

Best Motion Picture: Drama
- An Education
- The Hurt Locker
- Invictus
- The Lovely Bones
- Precious: based on the novel by Sapphire

The best drama category is also usually easy to predict. Just take the most buzzed and acclaimed dramas that have come out during the fall and winter and place them in. An Education, which could qualify as a comedy perhaps, is an excellent critics darling, and the same could be said about The Hurt Locker, which despite it's apolitical story, gains extra cred for being the first successful Iraq war film. Invictus is the important, biopic drama, and also has Clint Eastwood as it's director which is a plus, and The Lovely Bones is the big prestige drama of the late winter, ala Benjamin Button. The one film on this list that doesn't fall into any cliched category is Precious, an excellent, but punishing small indie film. It has the reviews, endorsement from Oprah and Tyler Perry and the buzz it needs, and plainly, its just fucking amazing. Precious makes it. Also in contention are...period biopic, The Last Station, gay themed A Single Man, post apocalyptic thriller The Road and the Coen Brother's excellent A Serious Man, along with the mysterious enigma that is James Cameron's Avatar.

Best Director of a Motion Picture
- Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
- Clint Eastwood for Invictus
- Peter Jackson for The Lovely Bones
- Rob Marshall for Nine
- Jason Reitman for Up in the Air

This year's best director slate at the Globes will most likely include three men who may not find themselves in Oscar contention later in the month. Despite excellent reviews for Lee Daniels; directorial debut, Precious, in the end he will most likely be snubbed by the globes in favor of Peter Jackson, a publicly known filmmaker who has this year's December prestige event movie, The Lovely Bones. Also riding on the coattails of their reputation could be Clint Eastwood, an automatic nominee for every one of his films, and Rob Marshall whose films Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha took the globes by storm. Also likely to be nominated are Kathryn Bigelow, the respected female director of the incendiary Iraq war drama The Hurt Locker, and wunderkind Jason Reitman for his beautiful affecting dramady Up in the Air. Also in contention are...Lee Daniels for his amazing debut Precious, James Cameron for Avatar which remains a huge question mark for prognosticaters, Spike Jonze for Where The Wild Things Are, and Quentin Tarantino for his excellent film, Inglourious Basterds.

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