Predicting the Globes Part: One

The Golden Globes, best known as the little sister awards show to the Oscar's has long been a semi-important awards prognosticator for how the Oscars could go. So given the recent announcement that a drunken, unrehearsed Ricky Gervais (creator and star of The Office, Extras, Ghost Town and The Invention of Lying) will host this year's Golden Globes, an excellent choice by the way, I figure that it is as good a time as any to release my current predictions for the film categories of this year's show. While category and genre placement are still up in the air at the moment, I feel confident that I can successfully predict the HFPA "starfucker" voting mentality, and put out predictions that will come to pass as true. So, here goes it...

Best Motion Picture: Comedy or Musical

- The Hangover

- It's Complicated

- Julie & Julia

- Nine

- Up in the Air

This category tends be fairly easy to predict. Nine is the big prestige musical of the year, so that's getting in, Julie & Julia and It's Complicated fill the Nancy Meyers' type rom-com slot, ironic given her movie will be nominated this year. Up in the Air is the Sideways type dramady film that is amazing and probably has the best shot of winning, and lastly, The Hangover is the big comedy success of the year, raking in cash along with great reviews, so I think that it has a great chance at a nod. Also in contention are...Judd Apatow's underrated Funny People, Everybody's Fine and depending on genre placement, Quentin Tarantino's fantastic Inglourious Basterds, which I thought was riotously funny, though many may not share that opinion.

Best Motion Picture: Drama
- An Education

- The Hurt Locker

- Invictus
- The Lovely Bones

- Precious: based on the novel by Sapphire

The best drama category is also usually easy to predict. Just take the most buzzed and acclaimed dramas that have come out during the fall and winter and place them in. An Education, which could qualify as a comedy perhaps, is an excellent critics darling, and the same could be said about The Hurt Locker, which despite it's apolitical story, gains extra cred for being the first successful Iraq war film. Invictus is the important, biopic drama, and also has Clint Eastwood as it's director which is a plus, and The Lovely Bones is the big prestige drama of the late winter, ala Benjamin Button. The one film on this list that doesn't fall into any cliched category is Precious, an excellent, but punishing small indie film. It has the reviews, endorsement from Oprah and Tyler Perry and the buzz it needs, and plainly, its just fucking amazing. Precious makes it. Also in contention are...period biopic, The Last Station, gay themed A Single Man, post apocalyptic thriller The Road and the Coen Brother's excellent A Serious Man, along with the mysterious enigma that is James Cameron's Avatar.

Best Director of a Motion Picture

- Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker

- Clint Eastwood for Invictus

- Peter Jackson for The Lovely Bones

- Rob Marshall for Nine

- Jason Reitman for Up in the Air

This year's best director slate at the Globes will most likely include three men who may not find themselves in Oscar contention later in the month. Despite excellent reviews for Lee Daniels; directorial debut, Precious, in the end he will most likely be snubbed by the globes in favor of Peter Jackson, a publicly known filmmaker who has this year's December prestige event movie, The Lovely Bones. Also riding on the coattails of their reputation could be Clint Eastwood, an automatic nominee for every one of his films, and Rob Marshall whose films Chicago and Memoirs of a Geisha took the globes by storm. Also likely to be nominated are Kathryn Bigelow, the respected female director of the incendiary Iraq war drama The Hurt Locker, and wunderkind Jason Reitman for his beautiful affecting dramady Up in the Air. Also in contention are...Lee Daniels for his amazing debut Precious, James Cameron for Avatar which remains a huge question mark for prognosticaters, Spike Jonze for Where The Wild Things Are, and Quentin Tarantino for his excellent film, Inglourious Basterds.

Invictus' Oscar Hopes?...

...are looking pretty good to me right now. The tone of the trailer gives off a vibe of importance, while Morgan Freeman, Matt Damon and Eastwood's direction looks to be excellent. Despite my hesitation to predict the film before, this trailer has pushed me over to the side of the fence where I see Invictus as a major Oscar contender.

Recent Release Short Takes

Amelia: A beautiful looking film, featuring amazing production design adn cinematography, yet featuring a flat unoriginal story and barely passable performances for Ewan MacGregor, Richard Gere and especially Hillary Swank. While it could still find itself in the hunt for technical nominations, anything else is a longshot, including a Best Actress nod for Swank. Just a boring film.

The Last Station: A period biopic drama like Amelia, yet completely engaging and interesting throughout, thanks mostly to the quadratic formula of performances for Helen Mirren (absolutely wonderful) James McAvoy (ditto) Paul Giamatti (Very good, reminding me slightly of his performance in The Illusionist) and Christopher Plummer (A career nod, shall he seek?). Like Amelia the film has great production values all around and could be a hit Oscar wise in the tech categories. However, I feel it's best chances lie on the performances of Helen Mirren, who just won a Best Actress prize in Rome for her lively work, Christopher Plummer, who will most likely get a career best supporting actor nod in this, and possibly James McAvoy, who continues to consantly impress and could be a darkhorse contender for Best Actor. The one problem I forsee for the film campaign wise is that Giamatti, McAvoy, Mirren and Plummer are all basically leads, and the decision over where to campaign may cause confusion and by result snubs.

A Serious Man: I saw the Coen's latest in Toronto and loved it then. Seeing it for the second time last night, I remain convinced that the film is their most brilliant work yet, featuring an amazing screenplay, great direction, editing, cinematography, costume design, ect., ect. The acting is top notch for stage vet Michael Stuhlbarg whose character Larry is run through the gamut, as well as supporting players Richard Kind, Fred Melamud, Aaron Wolff and the rest of the cast. The film's ending is one of the best I've seen all year, and I firmly believe that it will play great among Academy members despite being a very philosophical work with a great deal of Jewish themes. I loved it.

Where The Wild Things Are: A suprisingly poignant effort from Spike Jonze, Wild Things is one of the better films to be released this year. It treats it's audience with respect, giving us a mature, emotionally honest adaptation of a beloved childrens story. The cinematography and score are it's best attributes, but the performances from Max records, James Gandolfini and Catherine Keener are also fantastic. I feel it will probably make it into the Best Picture category as well as a few of the tech awards. Just a top notch film despite pacing issues at certain points.

State of The Race vol. 2 2009-2010: October - Best Supporting Actor

With fall ariving and the Oscar season "officially" beginning with the releases of films such as Bright Star, An Education and Where The Wild Things Are, its time once again to take a look at the current prospective nominees, this time in the categoryof Supporting Actor, at the start of fall. Here are the top ten contenders for each category thus far. (In a countdown from the least likely of the top contenders to the most likely)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (TOP 10)

10. Peter Sarsgaard for An Education - The only reason Sarsgaard rests at the number ten spot is due to technicality alone. It is currently unknown whether or not he will push for the Supporting actor nod or a Leading actor nod. My gut tells me that the films producers will want to bolster his chances and campaign him alongside Molina. Either way he is great in the film and getting a nod shouldnt prove to be too difficult for Pete, though people have been saying that every year since the Shattered Glass snub.

9. Tobey Maguire for Brothers - Playing a great role in proven source material, Maguire seems to be intent on stretching his range as an actor. He looks great in the trailer but there has been little to no word on the film's quality itself, and at this stage in the game if his film doesnt recieve wide praise, no matter how acclaimed his performance may be, Maguire looks to miss the Oscar boat once again. That said his nomination rests on Brothers critical and box office performance.
8. Anthony Mackie for The Hurt Locker - Phenominal in one of the year's best films, Mackie's chances at a nod depends really on only two things. One, the film has been able to sustain its buzz so far but it may have a tough couple of months ahead of it. If the film can survive the glut of fall/winter prestige films and remain a viable contender, Mackie may be safe. However if Locker's star Jeremy Renner fails to make the cut, it seems doubtful that the Academy would still bring him in to the players field.

7. Alec Baldwin for It's Complicated - Given his status as a beloved figure of the television entertainment community as well as being a past nominee, one would assume he would contend for an Oscar this year for his turn opposite Meryl Streep in Nancy Meyer's It's Complicated. Meyers having already nabbed Diane Keaton a nod a few years ago, seems to make films that are enjoyed by the AMPAS if not always honored, and Baldwin could ride that into a nod. However the film is a comedy, and the C-word can be an offense punishable by snubbing in the Academy.

6. James McAvoy for The Last Station - Having come so close to a nod in both 2006 and 2007 for his turns in the Last King of Scottland and Atonement respectively, it is probable that the Oscars are itching to give him that first nod and welcome him into the club. He is also appearing in a prestige biopic, a huge plus, and playing a major role in a period piece can lead to a fast track nomination. While it may seem perfect circumstances to gain McAvoy a nomination, the AMAPAS may only wish to honor Christopher Plummer with a career nod and/or Helen Mirren who is beloved more within that community than McAvoy is presently.

5. Christian McKay for Me and Orson Welles -Recieving raves for his performance as Orson Welles in Richard Linklater's recently picked up indie, Christian McKay seems to be in prime condition to recieve that Supporting actor newbie nod. He's palying a film icon, in a period film, that happens to be a serio-comedy, and has already recieved best in show notices from critics. The only con to his chances is the fact that the film is a small and may not recieve the release necissary to place him in Oscar contention.

4. Matt Damon for Invictus - Matt Damon is another actor like Alec Baldwin and Geroge Clooney who seems to be very well liked within the industry. Afterhitting it out of the ballpark with The Informant! Damon seems to be a likely double nominee this year. He is another actor playing a real life figure, opposite Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandella in a biopic directed by perhaps the most beloved actor/director if the Oscars in the past decade, Clint Eastwood. Due to the lack of early word or buzz on the film, Damon and Invictus are stuck in the too good to be true category for now, lets wait and see on this one, there isnt even a trailer yet.

3. Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones - A well liked and respected character actor, Stanley Tucci has seemed to be on the cusp of a nod forever, always delivering the goods without ever being rewarded for doing such. However, this year could finally change all that. With the goodwill leftover from his fantastic performance in Julie and Julia, his role as a killer in Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones could be a homerun for an oscar nomination. The film has the pedigree to go all the way, and in the trailer he looked downright creepy, so lets hope he delivers the goods once again this December.

2. Alfred Molina for An Education -You can basically copy the first two sentences of my Stanley Tucci thoughts and apply them to Alfred Molina, a nomination-less veteran who is absolutely fantastic in An Education, one of this year's best films. He plays a loving but worried father which is always a plus within the ampas, and that afformentioned veteran status will play big time into his chances which at the moment are considerable. He's got the reviews so far, and all he really needs now is for the film to just do well going into the precursors, and if that happens, he is a lock for his first nomination.

1. Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds - Hands down the best Supporting Performance of the year, and point blank a lock for the win right now. He's already won in Cannes and looks to be this year's Javier Bardem as far as the precursors go. Along with that, Inglourious Basterds is a bonfied box office smash and a darkhorse contender for many Oscar categories this year including Best Picture. I would be shocked if he isn't nominated, and very suprised if he fails to win the Oscar this year.

The Oscar Hut is on Temporary Hiatus...

...due to a sudden illness, ive been out with pnemonia for the last week and have been trying my best to get on the pc and pound out some stuff, unfortunately this is alot easier said than done, luckily this sick time has afforded me to see a few screeners ive recieved in the past few weeks, so when I finally am up and running I should have a review of The Invention of Lying, Zombieland, Antichrst, The Brothers Bloom (I know, but I just finally got around to seeing it), Paranormal Activity and a few other gems. I also have the State of the Race collumns on hold and will be revising them until I can put my full attention back on the site. In the meantime, Aaron Morales, a good friend of mine should be contributing a Golden Globes predictions article in the coming days.
Thanks for everything readers! Sorry for the inconvienience!

Tyler Pratt, The Oscar Hut