Sunday, February 8, 2009

Meditations...On The BAFTAs: Part Deux




This is probably the 2nd easiest category to predict after Best Film for 2008. Heath Ledger won this award long before the nominations were announced. However, I would be remiss if I didn't at least say that I feel 2008 had a wealth of great supporting turns. Every nominee in this category did a great job, especially in the case of Brendan Gleeson.

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Who Will Won: Heath Ledger for his dark, funny, scary and iconoclastic turn as the Joker.

Who Should Win: While Heath certainly did amazing work in The Dark Knight that deserves every single accolade he's received, I cant turn my back on Brendan Gleeson, who was the heart and soul of the wonderful In Bruges.

Who Was Snubbed: Since nobody else has this season, I want to bang the drum for Jason Butler Harner for his work in Changeling which has been stuck in my head since I saw the movie at Cannes. He was wonderful and the lack of attention being paid to his performance is criminal.


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Unlike the Supporting Actor race, this one is a bit tricky. Viola Davis is curiously absent from the race, while lightweight performances from Pinto and Swinton make it in. I doubt that Swinton wins two in a row, so she's out, and the same goes for Pinto simply because she wasn't that good in Slumdog. I have to believe that Amy Adams wont win, only because she has been overshadowed by Davis all season long, but she could upset in the end. So this leaves me with Cruz and Tomei. For some reason, I have a feeling that Tomei will pull this one off. She was excellent in The Wrestler and has been very consistent during this awards season, and I think that the Brits are really digging The Wrestler. Despite Cruz's early front runner status, there doesn't seem to be much love for Vicky Cristina Barcelona, so I'm inclined to believe that she will lose once again, at least Winslet's not here.
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Wil Win: Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler, a true supporting role, and a good one at that.
Who Should Win: I loved Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, she was extremely funny and neurotically arrogant, not to mention sexy.
Who Was Snubbed: Viola Davis for the most explosive performance in Doubt. She did more in minutes of screen time than Pinto and Swinton did in two hour films.
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I am just going to start by saying that this a two horse race between Sean Penn, the well bred front runner, and Mickey Rourke, the wily veteran underdog.
both men gave fantastic performances, and both could certainly pick up a mask tonight. Frank Langella and Brad Pitt are the "lucky to be nominated" spots as both seem to be just perennial nominees this season. And then there is Dev Patel. While youngsters have won in the past, Jamie Bell won in 2000 for Billy Elliott against all odds, I just cant see Patel going all the way. He honestly is out of his league here, his chances of beating Penn and Rourke are as likely as Slumdog Millionaire not winning Best Film.
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Who Will Win: I'm going with Rourke, he has an incredible momentum going on right now having just won the London Critics Circle Awards, and his personal story is getting so much press right now.
Who Should Win: Mickey Rourke, he was just too good in The Wrestler. Penn was very good in Milk, but Rourke's performance hit many emotional chords within myself. He made me tear up at least twice in the movie.
Who Was Snubbed: Leonardo DiCaprio, this year's perennial snub also gave the best performance of any actor this year. Years from now, people will kick themselves in the head for not realizing how good he was in Revolutionary Road.
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This would have been a much easier category to predict had Winslet only recieved one nomination. Because of her dual nods, she runs the risk of vote splitting, but due to the muted reception to Revolutionary Road as a whole I don't think that will be a problem. Jolie seems to be the easiest to dispose of, yes her film was well liked here but I think she is just filler this year in the best actress category. Kristin Scott Thomas could benefit from being both British and performing in a foreign language, french just like last years winner Cottilard, but I don't think this is her year to win. That leaves us with Meryl Streep for Doubt and Kate Winslet for The Reader. Even though Meryl hasn't won a BAFTA since the 80's, Doubt was only just released in the UK which puts some doubt as to her chances. So in short, I think Kate wins because The Reader was well liked by the BAFTAs, she is an international superstar, and the overdue factor may carry over from the Oscars despite her supporting win more than a decade ago for Sense and Sensibility at the BAFTAs.
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Who Will Win: Kate Winslet takes this one for The Reader, and makes her way to the Oscars.
Who Should Win: I think Kate should win, but for Revolutionary Road, not The Reader
Who Was Snubbed: Anne Hathaway for her fantastic job in Rachel Getting Married.
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2 comments:

Pooja said...

It is truly criminal that Jason Butler Harner has not received any recognition or nomination for his performance. He was amazing in that movie and really deserves more acclaim than he has received. I think these award shows just honour Hollywood royalty and if you're not in that category, then tough luck. It really sucks =(

February 8, 2009 at 2:14 PM
Dan Dassow said...

In my humble opinion, Heath Ledger should have been nominated for best actor for his role as the Joker in The Dark Knight. Although, Christian Bale played the title role, the film is more about The Joker than Batman.

I agree that Jason Butler Harner should have been nominated for best supporting actor. I found his performance as Gordon Stewart Northcott stunningly accurate, and the most memorable one in Changeling. He captured the simultaneously charming and creepy aspect of this criminal. Unfortunately, film critics seem to only be able to consider one role as a sociopath per year, and this turned out to be Heath Ledger's year. An odd coincidence is that both Jason Butler Harner's father and Gordon Stewart Northcott's father were carpenters.

I came to respect Jason Butler Harner as an actor as I was researching the Wikipedia article on him. I expect that he will eventually come to the forefront as an actor.

February 9, 2009 at 3:37 PM

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