DGA Predictions

With arguably the most important guild precursor coming up this Saturday, we could very well be seeing the wrapping up of Oscar's best Picture race. While most have been calling it a dead heat between James Cameron's Avatar and Katherine Bigelow's The Hurt Locker, we must remember that there are 8 other films vying for that number one spot. The strongest contenders against these top dogs are Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds and Jason Reitman's Up in The Air, both of which are finding themselves squared up against Avatar and The Hurt Locker for the DGA. So when I say this is an important precursor, you will hopefully now understand what I meant.

The winner of the DGA has matched up with Oscar every year for the past seven, since Roman Polanski's upset of Chicago's song and dance man Rob Marshall, yet Chicago won the Best Picture Oscar after receiving the DGA. Other than that little slip up, the DGA has only mismatched with Oscar's Best director winner twice.

This year, I predict the DGA's winning trend to continue, with their winner going on to receive a Best Director Oscar, but the director's film will not also pick up Best Picture.

Before I reveal my prediction, I'm going to cater to my egotistical love of my own writing and give you a rundown of this year's nominees.

1. Katherine Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

2. James Cameron, Avatar

3. Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the novel by Sapphire

4. Jason Reitman, Up in The Air

5. Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

I want to start off by making it clear that I think this is one of the most interesting Best Director categories of the last decade. We have a woman, a gay African-American, an up and coming auteur, a veteran known for his by the numbers blockbusters and a veteran known for his distinct cinematic originality. And to make things even more exciting they all have a shot at winning. Ok..so maybe Lee Daniels doesn't but still, each one of these visionaries, ok once again, maybe not in Daniels' case (unless your Mo'Nique), brought their interesting and wonderful personalities to the table and delivered excellence.

1) Katherine Bigelow filled the screen with adrenaline fueled tension, delivering what in years to come could be called the definitive Iraq war film. She created a visually engaging work of art, pulled great performances from her cast and managed to keep her buzz going since last year's Independent Spirit Awards, and for that she is deserving of accolades.

2) James Cameron's Avatar is a phenomenon. It is currently the highest grossing film of all time(when not adjusted for inflation). It is perhaps the most visually exciting films of all time. It pushes the boundaries of cinematic technology and film itself with it's revolutionary production.

Say what you will about the weak screenplay, we get it, Cameron cant write. But once you move that aside and experience the picture for what it is, it is clear why Cameron is the king of the world yet again.

3) Lee Daniels' career has been uneven to say the least. He was involved in Monster's Ball, a decent good but not great film. Yet he also directed Shadow Boxer, yes, that shadow Boxer. However, Precious, his latest film sweeps all of that under the mat, and showcases his natural ability as a storyteller when using honest, raw emotion to drive his story forward. His film is affecting, as are the performances he got out of newcomer Gabourey Sidibe and Mo'Nique, yes, Mo'Nique of Soul Plane fame. For transforming the longtime comedienne and historically bad actress into the terrifying mother from hell Mary Jones, he deserves his spot on the list.

4) Jason Reitman is the nominee here whose career excites me the most. He is a second generation filmmaker, the son of Ghostbuster's Ivan Reitman, and has carved a nice spot in the Hollywood community since his 2006 debut Thank You For Smoking. Many scoffed at his Director nod for 2007's Juno, but there is no doubt that Reitman balanced the comedy with the film's unfunny subject matter perfectly. His 2009 contribution, Up in The Air far surpasses anything he has done in his career so far. It was one of my favorite films of the year, and also the best serio-comedy to be released since 2004's Sideways. The guy's got talent and is incredibly deserving of his spot.

5) Quentin Tarantino. What do you say about the man's career that hasn't been analyzed from every angle already? He gave us Resevoir Dogs at a time when not showing the heist in a heist film was unheard of. He revolutionized the cinematic art form and independent film making when he released Pulp Fiction. He then did Jackie Brown, a decent effort if you ask me before moving on to his hyper stylized martial arts revenge novella Kill Bill. He honored his grindhouse influences with Death Proof, helping to make Grindhouse one of the most entertaining movies of 2007. And then he came up with his most accomplished, entertaining, polished and smartest effort yet with his latest film, Inglourious Basterds. His screenplay and direction are fabulously referential and downright fun. His cast is aces all around, despite having to direct most of them in a language or languages other than his own. The man is a genius, pure and simple.

So, who wins in this group of crowded artists? Will it be the war ravaged woman director? The larger than life showman? The breakout minority? The up and coming auteur? Or, the eccentric mad genius?

Who Will Win: Katherine Bigelow. She's got the buzz and the talent to live up to it.

Who Should Win: Katherine Bigelow or James Cameron. They are neck and neck in my opinion.

Who Wont Win: Lee Daniels. He's pure filler, but mighty good filler at that.

I say Bigelow takes it in an extremely tight race with Cameron. It really is the battle of the exes, despite the fact that I find that tag line a bit pedestrian. She's hot, she's talented, she's got the buzz, and her film is the kind that wont be ignored, the kind that will live on to be a modern classic (even though that could also be attributed to James Cameron and Avatar, minus the hot part).

Who Was Snubbed:

The Coen Brothers for their masterpiece, A Serious Man.

Neill Blomkamp and J.J. Abrams for re-invigorating the sci-fi genre along with Avatar and Moon